Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: Diverse Risks 2016 Call for Essays

Description: Models are useful in illustrating various facets of complex phenomena, but they are inherently limited.

Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society CAS and the Society of Actuaries SOA, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research.

Description: Presented at November 1952 Annual Meeting. Discusses some societal issues affecting the insurance business: war hazard, inflation, and taxation. Also discusses efforts to explain the profession and the prior year's activities within the profession.

Description: Editorial that explores how underlying issues of the economic bubble were actuarial in nature.

Description: Public DB plans have fatal designs such as basing benefits on a few years of earnings. Redesigning DB to be similar to SS will alleviate solvency challenges.

Description: Using basic actuarial principles to develop a reasonable spending budget and to keep spending/savings on track to meet financial objectives.

Description: This is an in-depth look at the root causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and ways actuaries can eliminate the problems. From the Actuary Magazine, April/May 2010 – Volume 7 Issue 2.

Description: This note is labeled actuarial because it deals extensively with the force of interest, a concept which is characteristically of concern to the actuarial community. The authors’ personal point of view is that we should modify the basic definition of the compound interest.